Cuba is not the “end all, be all” for the cruise industry

Summary

1.  Cuba will create a boom for the cruise industry….not really.
2.  If passed if will be several years before implemented.
3.  Cuba needs a lot of infrastructure work to support this potential move.
4. Benefits other than cruise lines…entire Cuban economy, local hotels and building  industry will have the biggest positive impact…could also lead to the demise of Castro and socialism.

Analysis 

Cruise industry

Cruise industry

No impact in the short term for the cruise industry and is not  a “Market Maker”
The impact on cruise industry, should The US/Cuban(CVE:US) rules change, while somewhat significant,  won’t happen in the short term and will benefit other industries more than the cruise industry.  The cruise industry will do well, whether or not Cuban access is granted because the industry still has significant upside in growth, since only about 17% of the population in North America has even been on a cruise vacation.
Cuba’s infrastructure today could not accommodate a change in the rules
Moreover, Cuba needs to invest heavy in its infrastructure in order to accommodate any significant growth in tourism and unless that starts tomorrow, (which is unlikely), it is years away from when people will go to Cuba for reasons other than just a passing curiosity.  Thus the building and hotel industries will be the biggest benefactors in “opening up Cuba” to US travelers.
What we have done in the past has not worked but their is a model to emulate.
The reason the US should push for the change in restrictions is because  the strategy that we (the US Government) has used since the early 60’s, simply has been effective.  Yet if you look at the return of Hong Kong (HKG) to China from the British, you will see a model that could be used in Cuba.  Since HKG had a viable growth oriented economy, when the Chinese took it back from the Brits that were smart enough to realize that they should “not  fix what is not broken” .  As a result, HKG continued to grow and prosper..and did not become a true “Socialist/Communist” society.  In fact the Chinese took what they learned there and applied it to other cities on the mainland like Shanghai.  While there is obviously still communism socialism in China, because of the free trade, pro business and reasonably open markets in HKG, China is no longer as isolated like Cuba is today.  The same will happen (only more quickly than in China)  should the US/Cuba lessen the restrictions on visitation. (Reuters.com)
www.particularcuba.com – Travel to Cuba
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About Particular Cuba
Particular Cuba organizes travel to Cuba. Hotel booking, car rental, package tours, excursions, flights to Cuba.

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